Will Sacramento have another wet winter?

The answer: A firm maybe.

A refreshing break after last weekend’s 90-degree weather, the rain wasn’t a lot, but it was a start. Sacramento recorded 0.15 inches on Tuesday, almost as much as we get in most Octobers, says the National Weather Service. Next Monday, the weather service predicts a 35% chance of more light rain.

Historically, October in Sacramento averages 0.18 inches for the entire month.

We’re coming off a whopper of a water year. Stretching from Oct. 1 to Sept. 30, our water year is a snapshot of our region’s rain and snow totals. The 2022-23 water year totaled 26.22 inches in Downtown Sacramento; that’s 7.02 inches more than Sacramento’s average for the past 30 years – 36.5% above normal.

Just as important for our water picture, the Sierra also had a bountiful water year. Blue Canyon, for example, recorded 92.09 inches of precipitation, way up from its average of 62.44.

Prospects of another wet winter are good. Warm water in the Pacific Ocean likely will fuel an El Niño weather system. El Niño systems typically soak California in mid to late winter.

But not always; some El Niño winters deliver a lot of storms to Southern California but not necessarily that much rain north of Fresno.

To be on the safe side, Sacramento-area gardeners and farmers should be prepared for more wet and cold conditions this winter. Dig up bulbs and tubers that could rot if left in the ground. Have frost protection ready to go early for tender plants. Don’t expect Christmas tomatoes; a cold November could prevent ripening.

According to the Old Farmer’s Almanac, the Central Valley can expect another wet winter plus some chilly nights. But most of our rain will arrive after the New Year.

“A strong El Niño means winter will be wetter than normal, with above-normal mountain snow,” the Almanac says in its 2023-24 winter forecast. “The stormiest, wettest periods will be in early and late January, early to mid-February, and mid-March. There will be a white Christmas across the Sierra Nevada mountains, but not in the valleys or along the coast.”

Expect some frost, too, maybe before Thanksgiving.

“Winter will be colder than normal throughout the region,” the Almanac predicted. “The coldest temperatures will occur in early and late November, early and late December, and late January.”