Wet winter in the works? Water year looks like a potential repeat

So far, our current water year – which runs Oct. 1 to Sept. 30, 2024 – has been feeling kind of dry. But don’t panic about lack of rainfall; we were at almost exactly the same spot last December – and we remember how that water year turned out.

For much of Sacramento (especially us folks south of the American River), our recent showers have been a drizzle at best. According to the National Weather Service, Sacramento received only a trace of rain from the storm systems that passed through Northern California since Thanksgiving. A half inch or more had been predicted.

Sacramento’s November rain totaled only 0.36 inches – 1.3 inches below average. Of that total, most of it (0.21 inches) fell on one day (Nov. 18). That followed a below par October (0.6 inches).

Our 2023-24 water year, which started Oct. 1, hasn’t quite measured up to an inch – 0.96. That’s more than 1.5 inches below our 30-year average for those two months.

Here’s the surprise: The first two months of our 2022-23 water year totaled almost exactly the same – 0.95 inches. After a bone-dry October, all of that total fell in November. That may be why we remember last November as “wet.”

Or it could be because we had a very wet winter. Last December kicked off an unusually rainy season with 2.33 inches falling in the first five days. December 2022 ended with 7.79 inches – 4.36 inches above average.

That 2022-23 water year wound up as one of the wettest on record. Downtown Sacramento received 26.22 inches, more than 7 inches – 36.5% – above average.

As for this December, the weather service forecasts more possible showers coming soon – or not. “Chance rain showers” – 20 to 35% – is predicted for Saturday, Wednesday and Thursday. But those odds also mean chances are 65 to 80% we’ll stay dry.

Just keep your umbrella handy – and fingers crossed.